JOHOR POLLS | Perikatan Nasional is contesting only 33 seats in this Johor election, and PAS has called on its members and supporters to cast their votes for BN in the 23 seats where PN is sitting out.

At first glance, this appears advantageous to BN. However, PN's votes may not necessarily transfer entirely to BN. The crucial detail is that PN’s support base in Johor is primarily anchored by Bersatu, not PAS.

Following the bitter split between PAS and Bersatu, PAS can discipline its own members and supporters, but Bersatu’s rank-and-file are highly unlikely to dance to PAS’ tune, and their votes will decide the outcome of these 23 seats.

If PAS members and supporters strictly adhere to their leadership's directives, this bloc of Malay votes could indeed shift to BN. In highly competitive mixed-demographic constituencies, the movement of just...