'Rainfall forecast could have averted Bertam flood'

FOCUS The Bertam Valley flood that claimed four lives and caused extensive property damage could have been avoided had a rainfall forecast system been established, an expert said.

A Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) professor, Mohd Ekhwan Toriman, who studied the Ringlet Reservoir where the Sultan Abu Bakar Dam is located, said such a forecast system could have provided for water to be released in stages from the dam.

"The flooding could have been prevented if the dam operator had been alerted to the rainfall forecast a week before the incident.

"That means early preparations could have been carried out by releasing (the dam water) stage by stage," Ekhwan said in an email to Malaysiakini.

He said an upgrade to the Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) warning system could also have averted the calamity that resulted in the Oct 23 flooding of the Bertam Valley in Ringlet, Cameron Highlands.

"An hour's notice, as claimed by the Cameron Highlands police, is not enough, taking into consideration the volume, velocity and river morphology," Ekhwan said.

He added that loss to property could also have been avoided had the river banks been cleared of settlements.

"Based on my previous observation, most of the victims were located along the river bank... they were too close, with some (living with the river) just on their backyard.

"I am not sure about their status, but I suspect they are illegal residents (who) established themselves there years ago," Ekhwan said.

Difficult job for TNB

However, in supporting TNB's claim that the water release was "inevitable", Ekhwan said it would have been "pretty difficult" to prevent the flooding, especially one triggered by heavy rainfall and reservoir spillage.

"The dam operator had followed the standard operating procedures prior to releasing the water from the reservoir," he said.

The de-silting and river sand digging, Ekhwan said, were conducted on a "regular basis" within the Ringlet area, as well as above Sungai Habu and Sungai Ringlet, to deal with sedimentation that compromised the reservoir storage capacity.

Researchers have warned that massive forest clearing would compromise the performance of the reservoir, while a simulation in the year 2011 showed various buildings - including a school and a surau - were in the path of disaster should water be released from the dam.

Even a minor release of four cubic metres of water per second would see the surau, fire station and SRJK (C) Bertam Valley flooded by up to a metre deep, with the water reaching the edges of a nearby wet market, library and community hall.

TNB had earlier said the rainfall before the release of dam water was three times above normal and that weather and development activities were making it increasingly harder to ensure the safety of residents downstream.

It also advised those living near the river to move out of the area or risk going under water again in future. It has also offered compensation to those affected.

The government has said that the riverine residents would be re-located for their safety, following the flash flood and mudslide that destroyed 80 houses and 100 cars last week.

Yesterday: Alarm over Bertam flood risk raised years ago

Tomorrow: An eyewitness account of the deluge