GE14 | Today we continue with the remaining issues in Penang you need to know about ahead of the coming general election in Penang. Can Gerakan make a breakthrough after gaining zero seats in the last two polls, how will MCA fare, and can PKR retain Permatang Pauh?

The coming polls are increasingly seen as a "most tangled" affair in Penang.
(continued from Part 1)

4. This time around, can Gerakan finally break through?

Gerakan will contest 13 seats, six against PKR and seven against DAP. A possible breakthrough for them is six mixed seats - Sungai Pinang, Pantai Jerejak, Bukit Tengah, Machang Bubuk, Dato Keramat and Batu Uban.

Sungai Pinang will be a seat to watch. The DAP seat comprises of 54% Chinese voters with DAP winning by a 4,707 majority in the last general election. Tanjung Bungah state assemblyperson Teh Yee Cheu, who has decided to leave the party, has confirmed contesting under a non-Harapan or BN party ticket.

If BN Penang chief Teng Chang Yeow eventually stands in this mixed seat, he can probably benefit from Teh's candidacy as the later can draw away some of DAP's supporters.

Gerakan may also field Teng in PKR's Pantai Jerejak which only has 49% Chinese voters with PKR gaining a 5,354 majority in the last polls. Gerakan state deputy chief Oh Tong Keong, who was appointed as the constituency coordinator, said he is willing to give way to Teng.

Bukit Tengah and Pulau Tikus are another two seats which deserve attention.

Gerakan assistant secretary-general Thor Teong Ghee has been appointed as the constituency coordinator for Bukit Tengah and actively engages the community there whereas Pakatan hasn't yet decided who is their candidate and may lose certain support from the Juru worker dorms controversy.

For Pulau Tikus, high-profile Gerakan acting youth chief Jason Loo will be a potential candidate. DAP's incumbent won Yap Soo Huey (below) with an 8,220 majority the last time but has decided not to seek re-election.

While it is still unclear who will be her replacement, Loo has gained good publicity for the various issues he raised and may create a surprising challenge for DAP.

5. Will MCA candidates lose their deposits again?

MCA contested in10 seats, all against DAP. The majority votes for these seats won by DAP ranged from 7,744 to 25,719.

Since there were two MCA candidates, Lau Chiek Tuan and Loke Cheang Gin who lost their deposits in Berapit and Pengkalan Kota state seats in GE13, speculation is rife on whether history will repeat itself.

After a total wipe-out in two consecutive elections, MCA appointed local leader Tan Teik Cheng as state liaison chairperson. However, compared to Gerakan's high-profile publicity drives, MCA is either totally absent in some policy debates or over-dependent on only press releases.

This creates an impression that the party is more focused or familiar in handling local issues besides assisting China to push for their "One Belt One Road" programme.

Other than Teik Cheng, who is also the Penang Port Commission chairperson, MCA state secretary Tang Heap Seng and Tan Chuan Hong, other MCA state leaders are not so well-known. They seem to even need to rely on the party deputy president Wee Ka Siong to take on the tunnel issue.

According to recent reports, MCA and Gerakan are talking about swapping two parliament Seats - Bayan Baru and Batu Kawan where Teik Cheng may be fielded as a candidate. This seemed to upset MCA with six division leaders expressing their disappointment at the move.

6. The most tangled affair in history?

In the 2009 Bukit Selambau by-election, a total of 15 candidates stood for the election and created the most number of candidates record in our history. For the coming GE14, Penang may also see one of the most intense multi-corner fights.

Other than BN, Harapan and Gagasan Sejahtera (PAS, Parti Cinta Malaysia and others), Party Rakyat Malaysia (PRM) and the Penang Front Party (PFP) have also expressed their intention to contest in Penang.

PRM, which just recruited two journalists, aims to contest 30 if not all the state seats in Penang while PFP is aiming for around 25 state seats.

Newcomer Malaysian United Party (MUP) which was formed about one year ago, has yet to decide whether to join the fight.

Initially, the People's Alternative Party (PAP), a DAP splinter party, planned to contest all the Penang seats but its former president, Zulkifli Mohd Noor (below) together with nine central executive committee (CEC) members have since left the party.

Following this, 25 of the party's candidates who were supposed to be fielded in Penang in the coming polls have withdrawn from the race.

7. CM, his court case and successor

Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng's much-anticipated court case will start tomorrow with 23 days in total. If the election is held in the coming three months, it means Lim will need to shuttle between the courtroom and election campaign battlefield.

Lim, who is now the Bagan MP and Air Putih state assemblyperson, is expected to defend both seats. Will he be able to fight both battles - in court and on the ground - at the same time?

In last year's interview with Malaysiakini, Lim has openly claimed that his father, DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang will not be contesting in Penang and that state DAP chief Chow Kon Yeow will be his successor if the court sentences him to jail.

Still, speculation is rife that Kit Siang may return to Penang to realise his "dream" as the Penang chief minister. We may find out the answer on nomination day and we may not have to wait until the trial ends.

8. Can PKR defend Permatang Pauh?

Even during its worst-case scenario in 2004, PKR still managed to guard Permatang Pauh. But this time it is different as PAS will field their own candidate and this will test whether the multi-racial party formed by Harapan de facto leader Anwar has the capability to garner support from anti-BN Malay voters.

There is about 70% of Malay votes in Permatang Pauh while Permatang Pasir, a state seat under Permatang Pauh is a PAS stronghold and has maintained the two seats in the last two elections.

If there is a possibility of losing the seat, would PKR president and Pakatan deputy prime ministerial candidate Wan Azizah Wan Ismail still consider defending here seat or will her daughter the “Princess of Reformasi” Nurul Izzah Nurul Anwar replace her as speculated?

9. Let's talk about policies

In the last election, BN reveals the concept of a free port one year before the polls. In its final manifesto, they pledged to restore Penang's free port status, build a monorail and all in all coming up with a total of 19 promises.

But unfortunately, the “1Malaysia-Penang Welfare Club” then came onto the scene and all policy discussions have been shelved. Even Chang Yeow who led BN's campaign lamented that the efforts by its research teams had all gone down to the drain.

Since this 1Malaysia-Penang Welfare Club is now out of the show, would this election campaign be back on track which a focus on policy debates and discourses?

Apart from the GST and 1MDB affair, would Harapan come out with new policies to overshadow BN? After all, there were not many surprises in the Pakatan Rakyat 2013 manifesto and it only manages to offer two new reform agendas and continue with what it had been doing in the last term.

In 2015, Chang Yeow (above) disclosed that Gerakan was drafting an alternative policy framework which is named as "Come Back" saying it was up to BN to decide whether to adopt it as their manifesto.

Since they were rejected by Penangites in last polls, will BN re-offer its promises like a free port the approval of which is under the jurisdiction of the federal government?

Or will they instead provide long-term policies and solutions which can be implemented under the state and local authorities?

At the end of the day, do the voters still care?

10. Big rallies, less passion

Yes, the election campaign has yet to begin in Penang but the attendance of Harapan's 10th-anniversary rally a couple weeks ago showed that voters are fatigued and weary of politics.

After failed to capture Putrajaya in the last election, some Harapan supporters haves started losing their passion.

Other than those who are over-confident and complacent, there are also those who are upset, either with state government policy or the alignment with Bersatu chairperson and former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad, which may trigger them to spoil their vote or not to vote.

Just like for the other parts of the country, the biggest question mark and a wild card, for now, will be whether Mahathir will manage to attract enough support to offset and even add to the votes lost due to the PAS factor and the reasons mentioned above.

Harapan, particularly DAP, will not refrain from organising big rallies and political talks to boost their supporters and morale.

In urban areas, the turn-out rate for their rallies and donations will still a pretty good indicator especially when you want to examine whether your hardcore supporters are still with you or not.

10 issues in Penang ahead of GE14 – Part I