Embattled Rashid seeks to be first two-term Batu Pahat MP in three decades

GE15 | Batu Pahat is a relatively urbanised parliamentary seat in central Johor.

Since 1995, the seat had six consecutive terms, or 27 years, in which no former MP of either party has been re-elected for a second term, be it either due to not being re-nominated or losing at the ballot box.

It is a streak that incumbent MP Rashid Hasnon hopes to break, amid a battle for survival after jumping ship from PKR to Bersatu and Perikatan Nasional (PN) following the Sheraton Move.

A mixed seat with 52 percent Malay voters, Chinese (45 percent), Indian (1.4 percent), and others 1.6 (percent) - Batu Pahat ditched BN for PKR in 2013 and has stuck with it since.

The primary source of support for PKR and Pakatan Harapan in the seat is in Penggaram - an urban and Chinese majority state seat with around 70,000 voters.

That’s 10,000 more than Batu Pahat’s two other state constituencies - Senggarang and Rengit - combined.

And like many urban and predominantly non-Malay areas, voters in Penggaram are not happy with party hoppers.

During the Johor state election, Penggaram voted 53.7 percent for Harapan, 24.3 percent for BN, and 15.5 percent for PN - with another 6.4 percent of votes going to an independent.

Possibly cognisant of PN’s unpopularity in the urban seat, Rashid’s campaign schedule, when Malaysiakini visited Batu Pahat, was seen to be focused mainly on Senggarang and Rengit.

There, his campaign did not revolve around big ceramah programmes, but on smaller political speeches at voting district centres with dozens of attendees - most of whom are supporters, party workers and their friends and family.

Rashid would stay after his speech to talk to supporters in an approach in line with the preferences of semi-urban and rural areas voters for political leaders who can give a personal touch.

Other events included a town hall session in Rengit, where Rashid opened the floor for questions and complaints.

This more on-the-ground approach to campaigning may pay off for Rashid in these two state constituencies.

While BN won both Senggarang and Rengit during the March state polls, Malay votes in both areas may swing towards PN this Saturday.

Some unperturbed by party-hopping

Several Malay voters told Malaysiakini that they were satisfied with Rashid’s performance over the past four years. They appeared unperturbed by Rashid switching parties in 2020.

Aliff Zikri Zamri, a 28-year-old Rengit voter, admitted that people there tend to vote for BN but that things are different now.

He said voters will not just vote along the party line anymore but will choose the candidate who can quickly respond to their demands and allocate funds to solve problems.

“(For party-hopping) when he (Rashid) did something bad, we can’t just say he is totally a bad guy. Now the law has been amended so nobody can jump ship after the election,” Aliff told Malaysiakini.

Meanwhile, a 41-year-old hawker who only wanted to be known as Shah Azman complained that BN’s Senggarang assemblyperson Mohd Yusla Ismail has been absent since winning the seat in March.

“It’s hard for people to ask for help,” Shah Azman said while praising Rashid for always attending villagers’ feasts when he is invited.

“I hope he (Rashid) can win,” he added.

For the hawker, party hopping was also not an issue, and he likened it to the job market.

“If you support me, I will hire you and pay your salary - and you will follow me. If we don't work or do business, we can't have income,” Shah Azman said.

Zamry Abdul Aziz, a 53-year-old PAS member who lives in Rengit, praised PN chief Muhyiddin Yassin as the best prime minister for the past four years.

For example, he said, Bantuan Prihatin Rakyat was deposited directly to recipients’ bank accounts during Muhyiddin’s time, as opposed to its BN-era predecessor 1Malaysia People’s Aid (BR1M) where recipients needed to go to a school and “shake hands with village chiefs and YBs” to get a slip before going to the bank.

The Malays and Chinese often enjoy food in the same kopi tiam in Batu Pahat, a mixed seat in central Johor.

Zamry was not familiar with the Pakatan Harapan candidate - Onn Abu Bakar - but he criticised the opposition bloc for not being able to settle racial issues when they were in power.

BN’s position

Rengit was a BN stronghold. In the past five general elections, Umno won comfortably in the state seat with majorities in the 4,000 to 5,000 range, including in 2018 where it weathered the winds of change.

But in the Johor state election last March, BN’s majority in Rengit decreased drastically to 1,920 votes with their vote share down to 48.9 percent. PN gained the second highest votes at 37 percent, while Harapan bagged 12.8 percent and Pejuang 1.3 percent.

In Senggarang, Bersatu and Harapan’s combined strength denied BN a third consecutive term in the seat during the 2018 polls.

However, BN recaptured the seat - albeit with just 45.1 percent of votes - in March, while PN and Harapan were almost evenly matched - receiving 26.1 percent and 27 percent of the votes, respectively.

Besides Rashid’s popularity with locals, BN also suffers from a candidate problem in Batu Pahat.

Umno’s Ishak Siraj is not well known across all three of the constituency’s state seats, despite being a village head in Senggarang.

Meanwhile, Batu Pahat has been held by PKR for two consecutive terms, suggesting that a certain percentage of voters across racial lines had voted for the opposition or for an alternative party.

This sets precedent for Rashid to woo Malay voters away from BN and Umno.

A Merdeka Center survey recently showed that PN has the most Malay support, with coalition leader Muhyiddin the most favoured prime minister candidate among Malays.

However, Malay votes alone are not enough unless Rashid can take almost all of them, meaning he will still need Chinese votes - which he has a strategy for.

Wooing Chinese voters

During his term, Rashid attended Chinese association events frequently to meet with Chinese community leaders.

During the campaign, his team also prepared a Chinese version of his manifesto, personal introduction and report cards.

In the report cards, he listed down the funds he gave to Chinese associations, temples and Chinese schools, including 14 Chinese vernacular schools and two Chinese independent secondary schools - in an attempt to appeal to Chinese pro-education sentiments.

Rashid also advocated his multiracial ideas in several ceramah sessions and pledged to continue to connect the Chinese Commercial Chamber and Malay Business Chamber with the government, as well as help Tamil schools.

In an interview with Chinese-daily Nanyang Siang Pau last week, he also explained that he did not switch parties during the Sheraton Move, but was instead sacked from PKR.

He said he did not agree with other Harapan leaders asking then prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad to step down for PKR president Anwar Ibrahim.

Instead, he said Harapan, should have strengthened the government and consolidated Malay support first to compete with the then-opposition parties - Umno and PAS.

According to Rashid, this was the main reason that he and former PKR deputy president Azmin Ali were sacked in 2020, which later led them to support the ‘most suitable prime minister candidate’ Muhyiddin.

In the interview, Rashid said he understood that certain voters were still angry with his move to Bersatu, but he believed that the voters will choose an approachable and dedicated candidate eventually.

However, his explanation has failed to pacify those who view him as a traitor - particularly those who voted primarily for a change of government in 2018.

This is in contrast to those who don’t mind party-hopping, who value being served by their elected representatives higher, and that switching parties is just a means to get the best access to resources.

‘We’ll support Onn if he promises not to jump’

This was clear during an encounter Rashid’s main competitor - PKR’s Onn - had with some voters at a kopi tiam in Senggarang on Saturday morning.

Several older Chinese gentlemen who were enjoying breakfast at the kopi tiam when Onn swung by, quipped “the BN team just paid for our beverages, are you all coming to pay for our meals?”

However, they immediately clarified that “it’s not very important to pay the bill for us, but the thing is, make sure you don't jump ship after you win.”

And it’s not just Chinese voters who feel this way. A Malay trader operating at the morning market nearby told Onn, “I will support you for sure, but promise not to jump,” while shaking hands with him.

Chinese patrons at the market also reacted warmly to Onn and Harapan campaigners, with one of them saying "I already know (I will support you) in my heart".

Meanwhile, a Penggaram voter, housewife Lim Mei Ling, told Malaysiakini that she was heartbroken by Rashid’s decision to switch parties.

The 53-year-old said she had participated in a charity run aimed at raising funds for Harapan during the last general election.

“When Harapan did events or needed some help, we would give support if we could.

“I believe Onn can win the support of Batu Pahat voters.

“(DAP Penggaram assemblyperson) Gan Peck Cheng has been hands-on and done a good job since she was elected.

“I’m not sure how Rashid performed, but we felt heartbroken when he jumped ship (after all that) we did for him in the past,” she added.

If voting trends from the March state election remain unchanged, Onn is more likely to have an upper hand in Penggaram.

However, while Onn is generally welcomed by Chinese voters because of the Harapan logo, he also inherited Harapan's biggest weakness - a lack of Malay support.

On Nov 13, a super Sunday mega ceramah featuring PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli managed to pull in about 700 spectators.

However, only about 30 percent of them were Malay.

Not everyone in the crowd was a Batu Pahat voter either. Instead, the people there came from neighbouring constituencies who wanted to hear their candidates - such as Sri Gading candidate Aminolhuda Hassan and Parit Sulong candidate Mohd Faizal Dolah - speak.

Early estimates suggest that even if Onn can secure a majority of Chinese support, he would still need 15 to 20 percent of Malay support to win Batu Pahat with more than 50 percent of votes.

However, if Malay votes are split in the five-cornered fight, Harapan may still have a shot at victory with less than 50 percent of votes, thanks to the first-past-the-post system.

Besides BN, PN and Harapan, the other two candidates are Nizam Bashir (Pejuang) and Zahari Osman (PRM).

Unfamiliar face

One hindrance for Onn to secure Malay support - and that of other voters in Batu Pahat’s more rural areas - is that he is not a local, nor a familiar face for those who want a more personable MP representing them.

Much of his political career has been in Sembrong, where he contested for PKR in the past two general elections against BN’s Hishammuddin Hussein - while he spends most of his time in Kuala Lumpur - where he runs his businesses.

Onn also appears to be facing troubles from the local PKR division.

According to Malay Mail, a PKR source said the grassroots wanted the party to field division chief Khairuddin Rahim in Batu Pahat and a commotion broke out in the meeting due to a protest over the ‘parachute’ candidate.

Khairuddin was Senggarang assemblyperson from 2018 to 2022. He withdrew from Amanah and joined PKR in March 2021.

On the campaign trail, Khairuddin is rarely seen accompanying Onn.

Instead, PKR’s former Semerah assemblyperson Mohd Khuzzan Abu Bakar - who is popular in Batu Pahat - is often his guide.

It’s unclear whether the internal dispute will have an impact on Onn’s election outcome.

This circumstance is reminiscent of the 2013 general election where Anwar Ibrahim’s handpicked Batu Pahat PKR chief Syed Hamid Ali was widely touted to contest the Batu Pahat seat before being replaced at the last minute with Idris Jusi.

Idris managed to win the seat - but was later widely criticised as an absent MP by locals - prompting PKR to field Rashid in the seat.

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