Suspended Umno men worse off than those sacked, say analysts

The political prospects for Umno members who were suspended in last night’s sweep are dimmer compared to those who were sacked from the party, said analysts.

Nusantara Strategic Research Academy’s Azmi Hassan explained that this is because those who were sacked, such as former Umno youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin and supreme council member Noh Omar, have many paths to continue their political careers.

“The problem is, those who are suspended are worse off (their fate), such as (former information chief) Shahril Hamdan.

“Since they are suspended, they cannot do anything, cannot join other parties, and cannot be active in politics because, in Malaysia, we rely on being in parties to participate in politics.

“So, for me, the fate of Noh and Khairy is better than Hishammuddin Hussein, Shahril, and others who were suspended,” he told Malaysiakini.

Last night (Jan 27), Umno purged several of its senior leaders and 42 other members for violating party discipline.

Among those that drew attention was the dismissal of Khairy and Noh, in addition to several suspended leaders such as Sembrong MP Hishammuddin and deputy Umno Youth chief Shahril, who were suspended for six years.

Between Noh and Khairy, Azmi said the former’s chances of continuing his political career are greater due to grassroots support.

“So, having to join another party, it is quite difficult for Khairy to continue his political career,” he said.

Wounded Umno now has direction

However, Azmi thinks there will be no exodus of Umno members following last night’s purge and cited Arau MP Shahidan Kassim - who quit the party after he was dropped as a 15th general election candidate - as an example.

Instead, he said, those who sided with party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi will be rewarded with important positions after the Umno elections scheduled in March.

He added that the purge will make it easier for Umno to share seats with Pakatan Harapan in six state elections, due in a few months, as Zahid would have absolute discretion.

“Ahead of the state elections, Harapan and Umno will work together because each needs the other and the most important collaboration is the distribution of seats.

“A stronger Umno will allow them to make some demands (because) there is an advantage for Umno after the dismissal or the purge,” he said.

Meanwhile, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s Political Science programme senior lecturer Jamaie Hamil is also of the view that Umno’s direction is now clearer after purging its dissenters.

“The current scenario of Umno is that they have clear leadership, even though some do not quite agree with the president.

“But names such as (deputy president) Mohamad Hasan, as well as Umno’s supreme council, have been strongly supported in the Umno general assembly recently,” he told Malaysiakini, referring to the assembly’s decision to not open the party’s two highest positions for contest in the coming internal polls.

State elections litmus test

However, Jamaie said, the upcoming state elections will be Umno’s first test on whether the “party cleansing” will succeed or “eat itself” like in GE15 two months ago.

“With the state elections, this is a first platform, a test of the extent of the successful pairing of the president and deputy president and the confidence of the delegates under them to continue leading Umno,” he said.

“This state election is the best step because there are, of course, strategies that will be taken by Umno to work together with the coalition government in winning the elections in the areas that have their respective status quo,” he said.

However, Jamaie said Umno will not be as dominant as it was before GE14 as the change in Malaysia’s political landscape meant people are now more open and are no longer obsessed with any particular party.

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