JOHOR POLLS | A study by former DAP lawmaker Ong Kian Ming predicts a bleak outcome for Pakatan Harapan in the Johor state election, projecting that the coalition could face an almost complete wipeout at the hands of BN.

In a statement, the former Bangi MP said he did an early projection of three likely scenarios for the state polls, all of which conclude that BN will maintain control of the state albeit with different degrees of success.

However, Ong (above) pointed out it is most likely that BN will bag almost every state assembly seat as Harapan faces a huge trust deficit among Chinese and Indian voters.

"In the pro-BN scenario, which I expect to be the most likely scenario, with more than 50 percent chance of happening, BN will win 53 out of 56 state seats with Harapan taking the remaining three seats.

"In the pro-Perikatan Nasional scenario, which is not likely and even less likely after the 'divorce' between PAS and Bersatu, PN will win 25 state seats compared to 21 for BN, with Harapan taking 10 seats.

"In this scenario, BN will most likely form the state government with PN, leaving Harapan in the opposition.

“In the pro-Harapan scenario, BN will still win a comfortable majority of 39 state seats with Harapan taking 14 and PN taking three," said Ong, who is also a political scientist and lecturer at Taylor's University.

BN won 40 seats in the previous Johor election in 2022, while Harapan obtained 12. This had allowed BN to recapture the state from Harapan, which managed to form a state administration in 2018 after bagging 36 seats.

Declining Chinese, Indian support

According to Ong's prediction, a scenario that favours Harapan would still see the coalition suffering a huge decline in support from Chinese and Indian voters.

He estimated that the rate of decline would be by 20 percent and 30 percent, respectively.

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Ong claimed the Chinese and Indian support for Harapan was already at its maximum in the 15th general election and "can only go down".

He listed a series of reasons for the gloomy predictions for Harapan’s performance. They include the coalition's failure to come up with a cohesive campaign narrative in the state polls other than continuous attacks on caretaker Johor menteri besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi and not naming its menteri besar candidate.

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The absence of top Harapan leaders from the contests and manifesto is also a factor that could contribute to the downfall, according to him.

"Harapan has created more problems for itself during the campaign with Nga Kor Ming’s remarks to a Chinese newspaper that he would resign from the cabinet if BN in Johor won big, and if this leads to Najib (Abdul Razak) being released from jail.

“This is coupled with (outgoing Skudai lawmaker) Marina Ibrahim’s social media posting alleging that a senior DAP leader asked her, in private, to prepare for Najib to be released from jail even as he was taking a public position against the ex-premier’s release.

"The implications of a dominant performance by BN, including MCA winning more state seats in Johor compared to DAP, will have positive spillover effects for BN in the Negeri Sembilan polls.

“It could also possibly expedite the dissolution of Parliament later this year," Ong added.

However, the former academician included several caveats to his projections.

He said they were made before the nomination day and do not take into account several factors such as the dynamics of individual candidates at each seat, the breakdown in cooperation between PAS and Bersatu, the impact of Parti Bersama Malaysia, especially on Harapan support, and differences in turnout according to voters' race.

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