Akmal set to give up Merlimau to PAS, eyeing other safe seats

Umno Youth chief Dr Akmal Saleh is set to give up his Merlimau seat to PAS in the upcoming Malacca polls.

Akmal yesterday thanked his constituents in a Facebook post, adding, "Where to next?"

Meanwhile, The Star today quoted a Malacca PAS source as confirming that state party chief Zulkifli Ismail would be fielded in Merlimau. Zulkifli is also the Jasin MP.

Akmal won Merlimau in the 2021 snap state election - which was hampered by low turnout - with 58 percent of votes.

An analysis of voting data from electiondata.my showed that by the 15th general election, BN's support in the seat had declined to 39 percent. However, Perikatan Nasional's support was at 30 percent.

With Umno and PAS playing up a Malay unity agenda, Merlimau is expected to remain a safe seat.

Two possible replacements

In his Facebook post, Akmal floated two possible replacements - the neighbouring seats of Serkam and Sungai Rambai, both Umno strongholds.

Like Merlimau, combined support for BN and PN exceeds 50 percent, meaning they are likely to remain safe seats the firebrand politician could win with little challenge.

A tougher seat that could test Akmal and BN is Ayer Keroh, which the Umno leader's sworn enemy, DAP, has held since 2008.

Ayer Keroh used to be a Chinese-majority seat. However, demographic shifts have whittled down the number of Chinese voters to 47.6 percent by 2022. Malays make up 42 percent of voters here, with another eight percent being Indian.

The demographic shifts could give BN a chance to capture the seat if it can sway Indian voters to its side and if Chinese voters split their votes or stay home. However, it won't be a shoo-in as in GE15, as 60 percent of Ayer Keroh voters backed Harapan.

Akmal contesting here would also require convincing MCA to give up the seat.

How about Bukit Katil?

Another option for Akmal would be former chief minister Adly Zahari's Bukit Katil seat - which BN has not held since 2013.

Adly (below) last won the seat in 2021 with 41.6 percent of the votes. Support for Harapan in the seat slipped to 40 percent by GE15.

Combined BN and PN support in Bukit Katil exceeds 50 percent as well, and while a likely win for the Malay unity pact, it could set up Akmal as a giant killer.

'No guts to risk defeat'

When asked for comment, Sunway University political scientist Wong Chin Huat doubted that Akmal would go for Ayer Keroh.

"Akmal won't go for Ayer Keroh. He would galvanise non-Malay votes for DAP. He won't even resign from exco after talking big. He won't have the guts to risk a defeat," Wong said.

A move to Bukit Katil is more probable, he said, and if Akmal defeats Adly, it would be a significant achievement.

"Adly is the most likely Malay Harapan candidate to win. If he is eliminated, Malacca Harapan (assemblypersons) would be all non-Malays, as in Negeri Sembilan," Wong added.

The Election Commission has set Nov 14 as polling day for the 16th Malacca state election, with candidate nominations on Oct 31.

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