COMMENT | GE15 – many questions, few answers

COMMENT | An announcement of the dissolution of Parliament is imminent. It is clear that Umno is preparing for early elections. GE15 is expected to take place in November. Why this early?

The popular view was that it was not in Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob's interest to hold an early election. He would wait until all the trials of the court cluster in Umno had been completed. But the court cluster has been hot on his heels.

Everything changed when Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi was acquitted. Zahid, euphoric after his court victory, rallied his troops and convened a Umno supreme council meeting and called for early elections. A decision was made but the date for the elections would be fixed by the prime minister. Was Ismail Sabri promised the prime ministership if the BN wins?

The opposition fiercely opposes early elections. They call on the king to refuse to dissolve Parliament. They say Umno has relatively few seats and thus, they cannot decide the question on their own. It is the rainy season and floods are expected. Cost of living is a major issue and the cost of holding the elections is estimated to run into hundreds of millions of ringgit. The focus of the government should be on the economy, and this is not the time to be distracted by elections.

Opposition leaders Dr Mahathir Mohamad, Lim Kit Siang, Anthony Loke, Muhyiddin Yassin, Anwar Ibrahim and Rafizi Ramli are all opposed to early elections.

It is not clear whether Harapan as a coalition is as cohesive as it was at GE14. Mahathir is not within Harapan. He has offered to serve as prime minister for one year. But his offer has fallen on deaf ears. He is 97 and after the Sheraton Move, no one will trust him again. He should give up any aspiration to be prime minister and support anyone the opposition put up for the position. He could salvage his reputation that way.

Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman, now leader of Muda and widely believed to be aligned to Mahathir, has asked to join Harapan. Is Syed Saddiq the man to watch? Has he grown wiser, stronger and clearer as to what direction he wants to take the country? During the previous round, he appeared uncertain as to which side he was on.

Anwar and his new deputy in PKR, Rafizi, appear to have reached some kind of accommodation. There are seven million new young voters. This election is a battle for the hearts and minds of the very young. Who can rally them? It was Rafizi's Invoke that laid the groundwork for GE14. He is a brilliant campaigner but by many accounts an irascible personality. His tactical genius is required. Will Invoke be resurrected? Where are people like PKR leaders Nurul Izzah Anwar and Fahmi Fadzil? Will Anwar give them a bigger role?

Has the DAP got its act together? Is newly elected party secretary-general Anthony Loke clearly in charge? Is he capable of stepping up to the breach and taking on the reins of leadership of the party? Are Kit Siang, Lim Guan Eng and Tony Pua prepared to be less visible? Will the DAP be able to galvanise the Chinese as they did before? The disillusionment of the Chinese community runs deep. MCA are convinced that they can do better this time. And is the DAP shedding its multiracial credentials? What is this speculation about Klang MP Charles Santiago? Why replace one of the hardest working MPs?

And does Amanah have the energy and the organisation to take on PAS? Harapan requires the oratorical skills of Mohamad ‘Mat’ Sabu. Amanah has to counter Abdul Hadi Awang's view that non-Muslims cannot hold positions in government and that the DAP is a racist party.

Where is the manifesto of the opposition? In GE14, the ‘Coalition of the Unlikely’ moved the ground and secured their victory. 1MDB was the catalyst for change. The margin of victory was narrow, and the Malay vote was split evenly between Umno, PAS and Harapan. Umno has almost certainly learnt its lesson and will want PAS on its team. But allocation of seats will be an issue. They will not surrender seats that they think they can win.

Will Harapan’s manifesto excite the electorate? Has 1MDB run its course? Will corruption be enough of an issue to bring the voters to the voting booths?

A Malay leader from the opposition who can stir the masses is required. He or she must also be perceived to be strong enough to defend and protect Malay rights. PKR is a multiracial party and will have to counter the narrative that only an exclusive Malay party can be relied on to look after the Malays.

Bersatu, Umno and PAS

What about Bersatu? Will they be given anything by Umno? Bersatu is really only Muhyiddin Yassin and Azmin Ali. Do they have grassroots support? Will the dissolution of Parliament mean the end of both of them? It is hard to see Umno conceding anything to them. There might well be a three-way fight for Bersatu-held seats.

On the other hand, PSM is a party to be watched. It is the only party that has come out in recent times with concrete plans to deal with poverty, Poverty levels in the country, already high in the pre-Covid years, have grown massively during Covid times. Cost of living now exacerbated by rising costs is driving more and more families into poverty.

There has been news of some discussions between PSM and Harapan. Harapan would do well to adopt some of the PSM proposals as their own. Socialism is no longer an ideology to be feared. A welfare state is required to help the poor. A balance must be struck between capitalism and social welfare. The poor do not have enough to eat. Bread and butter issues will dominate the campaign.

What about the BN and PAS? The real challenge is in their sharing of seats. PAS will want more than Umno will concede, Umno will want to keep PAS confined to the east coast states. But PAS has had the taste of federal power. Umno has tried to be more Islamic than PAS. But PAS will take credit for pushing Umno into a more extreme position from its traditional moderate stance. If the electorate cannot differentiate one from the other, who will they choose?

Is Umno united? It is no secret that within Umno there are factions. Khairy Jamaluddin, Hishammuddin Hussein, Najib Abdul Razak, Mohamad Hasan, Zahid and Ismail Sabri. Will they be able to come together and fight the elections? Are there leaders within Umno who are concerned about the scandals that have caused so much loss to the nation and so much damage to the reputation of our country? Are there Umno members who are concerned about corruption and the quality of leadership within the party? Or is the big picture still Malays versus the rest? Is there the possibility of splits within the party?

And so, we come to Sabah and Sarawak. These are the swing states. Their support has been crucial in the past few elections for any coalition to form the government.

In the past, it was believed that it did not take much to win the support of these two states. Leave the leaders alone to run the states as they pleased. When an unfriendly leader comes into power, get rid of him. But in recent times, things may have changed. Poverty levels in both states are the highest in Malaysia. In Sabah, the illegal migrants from the Philippines exceed the Kadazan population.

Both states feel short-changed. Their resources contribute much more to federal coffers than they receive from the federal government, The BN will make deals with their leaders before the elections. And the leaders of both states will deal with whichever party in Peninsular Malaysia is in a position to form the government,

Despair of the electorate

The electorate has been let down many times. Cynicism and despair have never been higher. Why is the incidence of poverty so high in the country? Why is it so high among the Malays and the indigenous people of Sabah and Sarawak? Why are the Orang Asli such a neglected community? Why are the races so polarised? Where are we as a nation?

Why have we drifted so far from the promises made at our Merdeka and on Malaysia Day? Are we one nation bound together by a common vision? Or are we divided by conflicting agendas that threaten to pull us apart?

Are those who contest the elections the best people we have? Are they men and women of integrity or do they simply see politics as the pathway to enrich themselves?

We are theoretically a nation of laws where the Constitution is supreme. Will our elected leaders respect the rule of law and ensure the appointment of the best people to key positions in all departments and institutions of government so that we always have effective checks and balances within the system to ensure that decisions are made fairly, justly and honestly?

Some of our leaders have failed us. In recent years, we have drifted downwards. There is a need for new leaders who place the interests of the people before their own. There is a need for new leaders who will restore our faith in politicians and in democracy.

And lastly, to the voters, however tired you are, however disillusioned you are - go out and vote. Vote for the best people. Your vote can make a difference.

DAVID DASS is a lawyer, a Malaysiakini subscriber and commentator.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.

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