In southern Johor, BN's fortunes at state polls may evaporate

GE15 | During the Johor state election in March, BN made a gamble and fielded 70 percent new candidates.

It was a gambit that appeared to pay off, with BN sweeping up 40 out of 56 state seats (71 percent) to secure a two-thirds majority in the state legislature.

In the urban parts of Johor’s southern belt, four out of six BN candidates in state seats under Johor Bahru, Pulai and Pasir Gudang were new candidates, of which two won. BN won three out of six seats in these three parliamentary constituencies overall.

For the 15th general election, Johor BN appears to be repeating this strategy, fielding greenhorns in Johor Bahru and Pasir Gudang, and one veteran in Pulai.

However, unlike in the state election, optimism among Johor BN that they can win at the parliamentary level - after Pakatan Harapan captured the seats in 2018 - appears to be less than enthusiastic.

Johor Umno sources Malaysiakini met indicated that the urban southern belt seats are still largely seen as “black areas” for BN, meaning places difficult to win.

“Like in Iskandar Puteri, if BN can just reduce Harapan's majority from GE14, that would be considered a success,” said a source.

In Pasir Gudang, the source noted that BN’s Noor Azleen Ambrose, who is also the division’s Umno youth chief, could be an underdog to Harapan's incumbent Hassan Karim.

“He (Noor Azleen) may be active but only in his own community… Hassan, on the other hand, has made a name for himself in Parliament,” the source said.

Noor Azleen’s debut attempt sees him replacing former Pasir Gudang MP Mohd Khaled Nordin, who lost to Hassan in GE14. Khaled has moved to the Kota Tinggi seat which is deemed safer for BN.

Likewise, BN is also fielding political greenhorn Johan Ropi in Johor Bahru - a seat which for over 40 years had been held by Umno heavyweights such as Khaled and Shahrir Abdul Samad.

The exception in BN’s line-up for Johor’s urban south is the coalition’s state deputy chief Nur Jazlan Mohamed, who is taking another crack at Pulai.

This is despite vowing repeatedly not to contest the seat which he lost in 2018.

Nur Jazlan is touting 14 years of service to Pulai constituents of all races, but at the same time has expressed pessimism that Chinese youths - an important voter base in the constituency - would vote BN.

As for Perikatan Nasional, a former candidate who contested in the urban southern belt during the state election claimed that first-time candidates pitted against incumbent MPs are unlikely to sway Malay support from Harapan or BN.

PN is fielding greenhorns Mohtaj Yacob and Mohamad Farid Abdul Razak in Johor Bahru and Pasir Gudang respectively.

In Pulai, Gerakan’s Tebrau division chief Loh Kah Yong is going up against Salahuddin and Nur Jazlan, a last-minute change following the withdrawal of carpet trader Deepak Jaikishan, who was initially announced as PN’s candidate for the seat.

This is Loh’s second time contesting an election after an unsuccessful bid for the Puteri Wangsa seat in the state election earlier this year.

Johor polls win not all it seems to be

The seeming lack of confidence among BN appears to be rooted in the deeper details of BN’s big win in the state polls just eight months earlier.

While appearing to have made a huge rebound, BN actually only received around 43 percent of the popular vote.

And while the total number of voters in the state election - around 1.5 million - is about the same as during 2018, the turnout was poorer in the southern belt.

For example, in Johor Bahru’s Larkin state seat, which BN won with a 6,178-vote majority, there were around 6,000 fewer votes cast than in 2018.

Further, PKR and Muda had clashed in the seat, splitting around 11,396 votes between them.

An overall glance at voting results suggested that compared to 2018, there were about 14,000 fewer voters in Johor Bahru and Pulai each, while the number of voters in Pasir Gudang decreased by around 1,000.

This is despite there being almost twice as many registered voters in these three parliamentary constituencies - who either registered after 2018 or were automatically added to the electoral roll after the implementation of Undi18 and automatic voter registration at the end of 2021.

It is a situation that Johor Harapan is confident it can turn around, according to state chief Salahuddin Ayub - who is defending Pulai.

“We hope that the voter turnout rate will be increased, based on the Johor state election numbers. We take that as our base.

“We are confident that along with an increase in the number of new voters, outside voters like those returning from Kuala Lumpur and Singapore, I am certain that Malay support for Harapan will increase in tandem,” Salahuddin told reporters in Johor Bahru last Thursday, after a function to formally introduce all 26 Johor Harapan candidates.

“The trend based on our survey is that voters who are undecided, typically in the past elections, would now side with the opposition,” he added.

Such is Johor Harapan’s confidence in a higher turnout that it believes it can hold on to Johor Bahru, Pulai and Pasir Gudang in the southern belt, in addition to Iskandar Puteri and Tebrau.

All five seats are considered mixed seats.

This means that while Malay support for Harapan is generally believed to be behind that of BN and PN - a smaller margin of this community’s support is required for victory if Harapan can secure most non-Malay votes.

But Harapan’s Pasir Gudang incumbent Hassan is optimistic that the coalition can improve on its Malay support in Johor.

He said this is because Johorean Malays - regardless of political affiliations - are “open-minded and rational” in their views.

“The Malay voters in Johor, whether they are Umno members, supporters or otherwise, have an open and rational attitude. They reject corruption.

“We must remember Umno veterans the late Dr Ismail, and Hussein Onn, they came from Johor. They have the highest levels of integrity, and reject corruption,” said Hassan.

“So if you ask me, Johorean Malays, whether they are Umno members or on the fence voters, will reject the current crop of Umno leaders perceived as having low integrity or are corrupt,” he added.

Johor Harapan’s confidence does not stop at the southern belt, however.

Salahuddin and Hassan both believe that with a sufficient turnout, the coalition may be able to capture BN’s eastern Johor strongholds in seats such as Pengerang and Kota Tinggi - where there are a higher number of Malay voters.

Pengerang is being defended by incumbent Azalina Othman Said.

Polling day for the 15th general election has been set for Nov 19th.

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