At least three Pakatan Harapan-led state governments will collapse if a new coalition comprising Gombak MP Azmin Ali's led PKR faction, Bersatu, BN, PAS, Warisan and GPS is formed.
The state governments at risk are in Perak, Malacca and Kedah, while Johor could also see a hung state assembly.
The Warisan-led government will retain Sabah but DAP and PKR will be ousted from the state ruling coalition.
However, Harapan will likely retain Penang and Selangor.
In Perak, at present, the existing Harapan coalition has 30 seats, comprising 18 from DAP, six from Amanah, four from PKR and two from Bersatu.
The opposition has 28 seats, comprising 25 from Umno and three from PAS. There is also one independent.
If Bersatu switches sides, Umno, PAS and Bersatu will collectively control 30 out of the 58-seat state assembly thus forming the new government with a two-seat majority.
In Malacca, Harapan has 15 assemblypeople comprising eight from DAP, three from PKR and two from Bersatu and Amanah respectively.
The opposition has 13 seats, all from Umno.
If Bersatu switches sides, the situation will be similar to Perak, where Umno and Bersatu can form a two-seat majority government as it will control 15 out of 28 seats in the state assembly.
In Kedah, the current Harapan coalition has 19 seats comprising seven from PKR, six from Bersatu, four from Amanah and two from DAP.
This is as opposed to the opposition which has 17 seats comprising 15 from PAS and two from Umno.
However, if Bersatu switches sides, the new coalition will control 23 out of 36 seats in the state assembly, one seat shy of a two-thirds majority.
Meanwhile, in Johor, a hung state assembly situation may happen.
At present, Harapan has 39 seats in the 56-member Johor state assembly comprising 14 from DAP, 11 from Bersatu, nine from Amanah and five from PKR.
The opposition has 17 seats comprising 14 from Umno, two from MIC and one from PAS.
If Bersatu switches side, both Harapan and the new coalition will control 28 seats respectively, leading to a hung state assembly.
It is unclear if Gombak MP Azmin Ali holds sway on any of the five PKR state assemblypersons in Johor. He only needs one state assemblyperson to defect and the state government will collapse.
In Negeri Sembilan, Harapan is in a more comfortable position as Bersatu does not contribute any of the 20 seats it controls in the state assembly.
They comprise 11 seats from DAP, six from PKR and three from Amanah.
The opposition has 16 seats with Umno contributing 15 while MIC has one.
However, similar to the situation in Johor, the Harapan government's survival in Negeri Sembilan is also dependant on no PKR assemblyperson aligned to Azmin defecting.
Three defections would be enough to end Harapan's government in Negeri Sembilan.
In Selangor, a PKR power base, Harapan controls 50 out of 56 seats in the state assembly.
The current state ruling coalition comprises PKR with 21 seats, 16 from DAP, eight from Amanah and five from Bersatu.
There are six seats on the opposition side comprising five from Umno and one from PAS.
The Harapan government is relatively safe in Selangor as even if Bersatu switches side, the Umno-PAS-Bersatu coalition will only control 11 out of 56 seats.
Even a large number of Azmin-aligned PKR assemblypersons were to defect, the coalition is likely to survive.
This is because DAP and Amanah already control almost 43 percent of the seats and will only need five PKR assemblyperson to remain to maintain the state government.
PKR president Anwar Ibrahim is likely able to muster a minimum of five loyalists from among the PKR assemblypersons in Selangor.
Party sources have also indicated that Selangor Menteri Besar Amirudin Shaari, an Azmin ally, does not intend to switch sides for the time being.
In Penang, the Harapan state government remains in a comfortable position regardless if a new coalition is formed.
This is because DAP and Amanah alone have enough seats to form the state government.
Therefore even if all PKR assemblypersons were to defect, it would not make a difference. However, that is unlikely to happen as not all assemblypersons in PKR were aligned to Azmin.
At present, the current state ruling coalition has 37 seats comprising 19 from DAP, 14 from PKR, two from Amanah and two from Bersatu.
The opposition has three, namely two from Umno and one from PAS.
In Sabah, the state government is led by Warisan and Harapan is only a minor partner.
Therefore if Warisan were to join the new coalition, all it needs to do is to oust Harapan from the current state government and continue with business as usual.
The current state coalition controls 52 out of the 60-elected state assembly seats.
They comprise 31 from Warisan, nine from Bersatu, six from DAP, four from Upko and two from PKR.
The opposition has seven assemblypersons comprising four from GBS and three from Star.
This excludes five appointed state assemblypersons, a unique feature of the Sabah state assembly.
Warisan alone has enough assemblypersons to form the state government on its own and any partners are at its discretion.